www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/a...ap/index.html
New oil field discovered off the coast of Brazil. Untouched, full to overflowing, instantly bringing the country of brazil from nothing, to one of the top ten oil producing countries of the world.
Peak oil....
More like peak gullibility! Pay attention to how far down this oil is, as noted in the article. How far out from the coast. And realize that with all the environmental restrtictions on oil exploration, and past limitations on our drilling technology... All the oil we've ever discovered or explored for, All the oil consumed in the history of mankind, resides on less than 20 % of the earth's surface. Just imagine how much more is out there. Just look at what is becoming available with our new technological exploration and drilling capabilities.
New oil field discovered off the coast of Brazil. Untouched, full to overflowing, instantly bringing the country of brazil from nothing, to one of the top ten oil producing countries of the world.
Peak oil....
More like peak gullibility! Pay attention to how far down this oil is, as noted in the article. How far out from the coast. And realize that with all the environmental restrtictions on oil exploration, and past limitations on our drilling technology... All the oil we've ever discovered or explored for, All the oil consumed in the history of mankind, resides on less than 20 % of the earth's surface. Just imagine how much more is out there. Just look at what is becoming available with our new technological exploration and drilling capabilities.
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Wed, May 7, 2008 - 9:36 AMCNN is so "spun" it's not even funny anymore.
Something tells me you don't believe in science at all...
There are masive amounts of evidence that global warming is indeed a real thing, and that it is not going to be good to us. As to what the effects will be, they can only guess at this point and who knows, there may actually be cooling trends in certain areas. There is no doubt though that our activity(humans) is changing the world we live on at an exponential rate, and there is ample proof of that.
When I have some time later on, I will send you some links where you can read up on some very interesting stuff. I wouls also highly recommend a book called The whale and the supercomputer, which will explain to you why global climate change models are good as a whole, but bad in smaller regions. It's a matter of computer modeling not being "fine scale" enough. This is something I do know a lot about as it's my business running computer modeling systems.
So don't just toss out a theory because you don't understand it, your pastor tells you it's wrong, or because the current administration says it's bad. Remember, they are known for suppressing evidence and fudging reports. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Wed, May 7, 2008 - 6:45 PMI have no idea what my pastor's opinions are on global warming, or oil levels in the world. I stopped listening to politicians a long while ago.
Since we're on the tangeant of global warming on this thread... I don't need computer graphing models or biased books to tell me what's going on. All I need to do is flip open a farmer's almanac to see that the hottest and coldest years in history have nothing to do with the number of cars on the road.
Here's my thing: An erupting volcano pumps more atmospheric poison into the air in five days, measured in metric tons, than the projected metric tonnage of air pollution of the entire human race over the course of last century. All the cars in the world are just holding a candle up to the sun compared to the power of the natural cycles of this planet. It will get warmer or cooler based on rhythms established over aeons upon aeons. There will be ice ages in the future and tropical heat-spells that may turn the west deserts back into jungle islands and ocean basins. None of it has anything to do with the little smidgeon of human existence over the past mere ten thousand years, much less the past one hundred.
My challenge stands, for someone to enlighten me, for someone to show me conclusive evidence that human influence has changed the earth's temperature outside of normal fluctuation tollerances, even by half a degree. Show me how things are happening today or last decade, that have never been matched or exceeded long before the first car was invented, before the first oil pump turned on.
Which brings me back to the thread, oil pumps. I don't really have more to say on it except that I would be glad to hear rebuttals to the 'peak oil' argument here, and also glad to hear more global warming talk in the other appropriate thread. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Wed, May 7, 2008 - 7:50 PMVolcanic eruptions do affect the temperature
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Wed, May 7, 2008 - 8:16 PMThousand, I am so telling Thor on you. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Fri, May 9, 2008 - 1:37 PMdont tell thor. thousand's in trouble now.
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Wed, May 7, 2008 - 8:28 PMgo get'em Bro!! I love it, -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Thu, May 8, 2008 - 8:36 AMMike.... Care to elaborate?
I'm sure dumping 4 trillion BTU's into the atmosphere over a 4 day period will affect the local temperature.... if that super hot air gets into any air currents, it will warm up a good portion of the earth for a few days...... but that's just naked heat. it will dissipate like any other heat. Off into space on the dark side of the planet with every revolution.
How about permanent 'global warming' heat? Is the earth permanently one degree hotter every time a volcano goes off? If it were, I'm betting we'd be a few thousand degrees toastier than we are today, given this planet's volcanic history.
However, this is just me, adding two and two. I'm not claiming to be a meteorologist or a geologist. If there are science-backed observations and proofs to the contrary, please feel free to enlighten me. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Thu, May 8, 2008 - 11:07 AMI can't cite the exact scientific papers any more as it has been a long time since Mt Pinatubo blew. In the aftermath of the eruption, as the jets streams spread the ash plume throughout the upper atmoshere there was a 2 to 3 degree cooling of the earths temperature, it gradually dissapated and the earths temperature eventually returned to normal.
I think the present cycle global warming is a naturally occuring thing, but, I also think mankinds actions are contibuting to it. How much are we responsible for? Who can really say? Your guess is as good as anyone elses. Are we not a part of the Eco system of this Planet?
Peak Oil, I just don't know, maybe we are with todays known oil fields. As, you have stated how much is out there that we don't know about. I read in the news today that the Saudis have made the statement that with oil right at 120 bucks a barrel they have little incentive to pump or find anymore. Read the same thing from the CEO of Exxon/Moile a few weeks ago.
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Thu, May 8, 2008 - 12:58 PMDid you read this part?
"The Tupi field lies under 2,140 meters (7,060 feet) of water, more than 3,000 meters (almost 10,000 feet) of sand and rocks, and then another 2,000-meter (6,600-foot) thick layer of salt. The company drilled test wells that lie under 2,166 meters (7,100 feet) of water, 286 kilometers (177 miles) south of Rio de Janeiro."
ok... that's a well that is a 23 thousand foot deep well! and they want hundreds of them... Water wells in San Diego county cost 5 bucks a foot to drill, without the casing. And these wells would be in Hurricane alley.
That will be a massive enterprise to get that to market... This is not easy oil like you think, thousand. If that is the kind of oil we will be left with you can expect prices to double... And double again. Just because it's there, doesn't mean its usable. Take shale oil. We have massive amounts of that, and people have been working for 50 years on an economical way to get at it, but to date, there is no technology in place to recover that oil that doesn't cost more than the value of the product itself. The current method is strip mining...
Whether we have reached peak oil or not, Cannot tell you, but thousands of intelligent people in the industry, in science and academia, and in various government entities around the world are trying to answer this question as we sit here and 'armchair QB' them.
My personal belief is that at least for the easy to get stuff, we are nearing or already at peak production, but there will be more to be found in increasingly harder places to get at it. And the only way we are going to 'survive' it as a nation and society will be curtailing use wherever possible, and through major conservation efforts. And Btw, The anwar oil is not easy to get... I spent a bunch of time in the bearing and arctic seas when in the USCG, and that is a mean sea and a meaner coast. And the present Alaska leases have only ever been profitable due to the government subsidies. And I am done with paying my taxes so Exxon can be profitable... -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Thu, May 8, 2008 - 9:16 PMVery valid points, Bad Dawg.... I guess now would be a fun time to post this article: www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Cas...UUHJCF_0.html ... it's interesting, but pretty much backs up your argument of 'costs more to get it than it's worth currently'....
Still, interesting. Oil and methane OCEANS on titan.... larger than our entire planet. I was more interested by the scale of proof of life on another planet, albeit long-ago expired life. But it's also interesting to know that there's more oil overhead in the sky than this planet could use in a thousand millenia if we were all driving hummers while we left the semi-truck revving at home on the driveway. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Fri, May 9, 2008 - 5:35 PMSee... I'm not as think as you dumb I am ;^P
Someday, if we don't blow our asses up... We will be able to tap gas giants... It really is space that is our good hope.
And, Earth First!
We can f*ck up the other planets later...
More later... I have some scary shit from the Scripps Institute to show you that may very well change how you feel about global warming...
I put a lot of trust in the scientists in question too, as I have worked with some of them and know them to be very honest and forthright individuals. Don't take my word for it though. Check 'em out yourself... -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Fri, May 9, 2008 - 6:36 PMYou must have worked with thor. He was the head scientist of all global warming studies. lol -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Fri, May 9, 2008 - 8:23 PMBrent, that's probably the funniest thing I've heard all day! good one! lol
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Fri, May 9, 2008 - 11:32 PMOH I have had my run ins with thor...
No I actually work with Engineers at this point and they are the biggest Skeptics of all... Many of our Materials guys do work with peeps at SIO. Doing some real cool stuff. As their data steward I'm responsible for keeping track of a lot of the actual data, and it's a lot of stuff. None of those well we got ten samples type crap We are talking about 100K data points... -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Sat, May 10, 2008 - 6:00 AMIt's because of global warming that thor regret's inventing the internal combustion gasoline engine. And it's because of global warming that thor regret's discovering electricity. And inventing the light bulb. Everything thor has done to make humans lives more comfortable has back fired on him. If he would have only stuck to teaching at his survival school then the earth wouldnt be so polluted today. I'll bet sometime's thor wishes he would not of sacrificed his life on the cross to save us from our sins. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Sat, May 10, 2008 - 9:13 AMglobal warming is fake
pollution is very real
if you shat where you eat eventually youll get guardia -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Sat, May 10, 2008 - 10:58 PMwell I'd probably use some good toilet bowl cleaner before making stirfry in the crapper, Rick.
I hope you're speaking hypothetically, and not relating an experimental experience with us... -
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This is the maximum depth. Additional responses will not be threaded.
Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Sun, May 11, 2008 - 1:29 PMATGI: If you have read the wealth of data on global warming and still do not believe it then there is nothing any of us can say, no links or articles we can point you to that will change your mind. The fact is that the caps are shrinking at a frightening way, and as they do they release methane that increases the process exponentially. We are riding a runaway train and by the time we reach the point that people like you believe it'll be too late.
Earth will just start over with a new, more heat tolerant species. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Sun, May 11, 2008 - 5:20 PMI guess the biggest problem I have with global warming is not whether it's happening or not, but rather, that people are so arrogant as to believe that WE, little human creatures, are principally responsable.
As I've said before. I fully believe there will be ice ages in the future, and tropical heat-spells that will scorch the equator and make humid hot swamplands out of the northern glaciers. There have been many in the past and I don't see any evidence that the earth has become a static, 'finished product'.
I just really don't think it has anything to do with hairspray and hummers. Those things are such minute factors compared to the inevitability and sheer power of the earth's climate cycles that they aren't even worth mentioning as contributing factors. The fact that they are becoming prominent at what could become the apex of another climate shift is purely coincidental. But I do see your point, Adam. I'm an impossible arrogant Ass about all this warming business. I suppose I am the natural opposition to all the arrogant asses touting that humans dictate the fate of the planet by how many diapers we throw away or how much fish we eat. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Mon, May 12, 2008 - 11:14 AMIt's easy to say "WE, little human creatures"...
But think about it: WE, little human creatures are now 6.6 Billion strong and every single one of us wants a fridge, a toaster oven, a microwave, a car, and unlimited power and clean water.
6.6 billion is a number the little human brain cannot comprehend. It's like this 6,600,000,000... Count that out in pennies and see what I mean. Add to that all our farting cows(That would not be alive if we didn't think they taste good), all our sewage dumps, coal fired plants, cars, 2 cycle motors, jets, fires we light, barbeques, I could keep going. and we are growing in population at an alarming rate, as shown here:
www.census.gov/ipc/www/id...opinfo.html
There is no way that " WE, little human creatures" don't have a massive footprint... -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Mon, May 12, 2008 - 8:17 PMIt's much easier for californians to believe humans cover the planet. Head east a few hundred miles, then a few hundred more, and a few hundred more, and a few hundred more, and you will see thousands of miles of NO HUMANS dotted with concentrated little smog pots like Vegas, that don't even affect the air quality 45 miles out from their city limits.
Come out here to utah, DOWNWIND from your bay area and your los angeles smog and your san diego pollution... If you really believe a cow fart or an engine fart will permanently poison the air it touches, come out here, where you can stand on a mountain and clearly see the details and clarity of a mountain more than 400 miles away... See an air quality that you have never in your life experienced. Go explore other regions and realize that you, in the PRKalifornia, are living in pretty much the only place west of the missisippi that bears any real damage from humans. On a global scale, your smog and roadside litter are very small and localized...
And all our farting cows STILL haven't reached the numbers it would take to replace the multi-million-strong bison herds that we blew off the great plains! Add a second helping of the current cow population and that'll about restore balance to the cow-fart shortage our continent has been experiencing for the past hundred thirty years. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 6:46 AMGo check out Dugway and then tell me the Utah environment is clean. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 6:54 AMFor that matter, Rocky Flats in Colorado, or Battle Mountain in Nevada.
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 9:20 AMDude. I spent four years in Alaska. I know what wilderness is. And in the arctic sea , I saw soot on the ice pack. And when I went to Guam on a 260 foot buoy tender in 1988, we went through the horse latitudes. Its a place in the Pacific Ocean that is fairly lifeless on it's own as its a huge eddy. Back then, it was just covered in trash. We sailed through it in about 4 days back then. Now a days I hear it's much bigger and it's twice the size of texas... What's that a thousand miles across? You can read about it here...
www.physicalgeography.net/funda...q.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grea...bage_Patch
And what it's doing to other species here:
www.pulitzer.org/year/2007...ans04.html
Just because you happen to live in a fairly untrodden bit of the earth, don't assume it's all like that. Look at India, China, Europe, and most of the rest of asia. The cities are huge beyond most American's imaginings. Heck, that town in Sichuan that fell down yesterday has a population of 10 million... Just one town in a region of "towns" like that. I tell you we do have an effect on our natural world, and we are doing horrendous damage. What i don't know is how we stop it or even mitigate it when so many people are in complete denial of the facts. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 1:34 PMI have been at sea, I know what you speak of. I have seen countless thousands of gallons of fuel pumped into the ocean by Navy ships because it was contaminated, do you have any idea how much trash and sewage an aircraft carrier generates in one day? It all goes into the ocean. Have you ever seen a ship blow its stacks? Its so dirty we are not allowed to do it in port, only after we are 3 miles out. Or a bottom blow of the boilers, again we have to do it at sea, so we don't pollute the harbors.
I used to live in the Philippines, I would put off going to Manila because the pollution from all the diesel engines was terrible. I would be blowing black soot out of my nose for a couple of days after I returned home. Hong Kong Harbor is so polluted that I wouldn't swim in it. The same thing goes for Yokosuka,Japan, Singapore, Tokoyo, just about anywhere else in Asia.
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 1:38 PMHeh... We blew our boilers in Yokosuka harbor... Fortunately we were diesel powered, our boiler was only for the steam donkeys. The way we pollute the ocean, there is no way I will ever believe that the air isn't getting bad too. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 2:03 PMIf a person flys alot, I don't mean as a passenger, as part of the aircrew, you can see the pollution in the air as you fly into any major city in the world. Salt Lake City included. As you descend from altitude you can see the puddle of brown crap that surrounds the city.
My Brother has a Doctorate in Oceanography, and a Masters in Marine Biology. He is presently doing research on the Puget Sound and the affects of shipping and pollution in the marine eco-system. What he tells me it don't sound to good. He got his Bachelors at SDSU.
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 2:12 PMShame on you. When I was on the Kitty Hawk they blew their stacks one evening sitting at Carriers Row at North Island, the EPA just happened to be looking, cost the ship a 100,000 dollar fine. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 4:41 PMWasn't my call... Chief Engineer did that... It's AMAZING how much crap comes out of a high pressure steam system... -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 6:02 PMI am forced to agree with bad dawg; using the US as an example for wide open space is a bad example. We have vast stretches of untouched land and resources, something China and Europe envy us for.
Here is a thought for you ATGI; in the days following 9-11, when all domestic flights were suspended, scientists were actually able to measure a significant difference in the atmosphere. Commercial aircraft all by themselves, in a span of 4 days, created measurable effects with their exhaust and warm contrails.
Now each car puts out a coupla thousand pounds of waste a year. What goes up must come down. To put it into tangible terms, a ton is about 2 loads of crap in the back of your truck (big piles at that.) So imagine that magically, 4 times a year you come out to your truck in the morning and it is loaded to overflowing with this greasy black crap and you have to find somewhere to dump it. People start dumping their along the side of the road.....and on street corners...and into the ocean where the toxin levels begin to build up in the fish, algea and plankton.
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 6:05 PMPS: When we fuck up the ocean, we really will be fuckd. The oceans are the cornerstones of our ecosystem. Even if you don't eat fish, you breathe air and drink water from wells stocked by rain water. Kill the algea or plankton and the entire system unravels. We may not be the first species to go, but go we will. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 7:53 PMWe are fucking up the oceans very badly and very quickly. This is a fact. They are still alive, but scientists predict major ecological collapse in the next few decades. Nitrogen runoff from fertilizers creates enormous plankton blooms in the Gulf of Mexico, creating huge dead zones where sea life dies. Most of the oceans of the world have been fished out. There is strong evidence to show that the Gulf Stream conveyor belt may shut down due to lowered salinity levels from the melting arctic ice cap, possibly starting a mini-ice age for Europe and North America. There is a swath of floating plastic garbage the size of the continental United States floating in the Pacific Ocean between California and China. Everything seems to be getting worse and worse and coming to a head. I don't see any way to undo the damage that we've done. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 8:49 PMWow... I didn't think it could be done...
I really doubted it was possible....
I actually have managed to coax and goad some legitimate, truth-backed and knowledge-based foundation to the whole enviro-whacko school of thought. Not just 'A particular, well trusted scientist (probably THOR) believes...' or 'Studies and statistics project that..'
But some real, firsthand LARGE scale examples, some good, sound common sense logic.
Thank you all.
I stand corrected. For the most part. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Wed, May 14, 2008 - 9:22 AMI always say keep your mind open for new ideas... It's good to be a skeptic though... I know I am and always look for primary source material. The truth is always in the middle...
It doesn't hurt that I have a subscription to Lexis-Nexus and a killer library down the road.
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Fri, May 16, 2008 - 7:35 PMThe epa fined the military? So did the government fine itself?
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 9:14 PM"Just because you happen to live in a fairly untrodden bit of the earth, don't assume it's all like that. Look at India, China, Europe, and most of the rest of asia."
Dude. Have you never flown??
And, if'n you have--what do you see when you look down? On ANY continent....Expound. At length. If you would....
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Tue, May 13, 2008 - 8:00 PMI'm not sure if you are saying that there are still vast oil reservoirs remaining to be discovered, or that Peak Oil is real. Personally, I think that Peak Oil is occurring at this time, in that the known oil reserves are drying up. It is quite possible that there are still huge reserves hiding under the deep ocean. But since the deep ocean reserves are a new frontier that we have not yet tapped, it may be very difficult for us to get this oil out. It could easily take 10 years, possibly even decades, for us to create the infrastructure to tap this oil. In the meantime, we will go thru a difficult period of contraction while we struggle to survive in a world that is half out of gas. -
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Re: Why am I beating this dead horse?
Wed, May 14, 2008 - 5:25 AMI don't watch broadcast TV, so I read alot, yesterday I was reading an article on AP. The bicycle business is booming, people are carpooling in ever increasing numbers. The use of public transport is way up. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory admitteted it is entirely possible to derive 30% of the nations electricity from wind generation by 2018. The article stated that would be the equivilent to taking 240 million cars off the road. Why all this? $4.00 a gallon gas. All of the oil companys are heavily invested in the solar industry, could we have passed peak oil and they are creating the market for their solar products?
I haven't flown since the mid and late 70's. I have no scientific facts to give. Just what I have seen. When we were returning from an over the ocean flights as we would be descending from altitude aproaching the coast you would see this big cloud of brown over any city we were heading into. The exception would be Hawaii, I suspect that would be because the trade winds keep it blown out.
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